My watch list
my.chemeurope.com  
Login  

Global warming: New research puts the blame on economic growth

09-05-2012: It’s a message no one wants to hear.  To slow down global warming, we’ll either have to put the brakes on economic growth or transform the way the world’s economies work.  That’s the implication of a University of Michigan study examining the most likely causes of climate change.

The study, conducted by José Tapia Granados and Edward Ionides of U-M and Óscar Carpintero of the University of Valladolid, Spain, was published in Environmental Science and Policy.  It is the first analysis to use measurable levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide to assess fluctuations in the gas, rather than estimates of CO₂ emissions, which are less accurate.

“If ‘business as usual’ conditions continue, economic contractions the size of the Great Recession or even bigger will be needed to reduce atmospheric levels of CO₂,” says Tapia Granados, who is a researcher at the U-M Institute for Social Research (ISR).

For the study, the researchers assessed the impact of four factors on short-run, year-to-year changes in atmospheric concentrations of CO₂, widely considered the most important greenhouse gas.  Those factors included two natural phenomena believed to affect CO₂ levels – volcanic eruptions and the El Niño Southern oscillation – and also world population and the world economy, as measured by worldwide gross domestic product.

Tapia Granados and colleagues found no observable relation between short-term growth of world population and CO₂ concentrations, and they show that incidents of volcanic activity coincide with global recessions, which may confound any slight volcanic effects on CO₂.

With El Niño outside of human control, economic activity is the sole modifiable factor.  In years of above-trend world GDP, from 1958 to 2010, the researchers found greater increases in CO₂ concentrations.   For each $10 trillion in US dollars that the world GDP deviates from trend, CO₂ levels deviate from trend about half a part per million (ppm), they found.  Preindustrial concentrations are estimated to be between 200 and 300 ppm.

To break the economic habits contributing to a rise in atmospheric CO₂ levels and global warming, Tapia Granados points out, societies around the world would need to make enormous changes.

“Since the mid 1970s, scientists like James Hansen have been warning us about the effects global warming will have on the earth,” says Tapia Granados.  “One solution that has promise is a carbon tax levied on any activity producing CO₂ in order to create incentives to reduce emissions.  The money would be returned to individuals so the tax would not burden the population at large.

“What our study makes clear is that climate change will soon have a serious impact on the world, and the time is growing short to take corrective action.”

Facts, background information, dossiers
More about University of Michigan
  • News

    Pinwheel 'living' crystals and the origin of life

    Simply making nanoparticles spin coaxes them to arrange themselves into what University of Michigan researchers call 'living rotating crystals' that could serve as a nanopump. They may also, incidentally, shed light on the origin of life itself. The researchers refer to the crystals as 'liv ... more

    Microparticles show molecules their way

    A team of researchers of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) and the University of Michigan/USA has produced novel microparticles, whose surface consists of three chemically different segments. These segments can be provided with different (bio-) molecules. Thanks to the specific spatia ... more

    Chemical chaperones have helped proteins for billions of years

    An ancient chemical, present for billions of years, appears to have helped proteins function properly since time immemorial. Proteins are the body's workhorses, and like horses they often work in teams. There exists a modern day team of multiple chaperone proteins that help other proteins f ... more

More about Universidad de Valladolid
  • News

    Global warming: New research puts the blame on economic growth

    It’s a message no one wants to hear.  To slow down global warming, we’ll either have to put the brakes on economic growth or transform the way the world’s economies work.  That’s the implication of a University of Michigan study examining the most likely causes of climate change. The study, ... more

Your browser is not current. Microsoft Internet Explorer 6.0 does not support some functions on Chemie.DE