Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.
Hunt, Dexter V. L. ; Lombardi, D. Rachel ; Atkinson, Stuart ; Barber, Austin R. G. ; Barnes, Matthew ; Boyko, Christopher T. ; Brown, Julie ; Bryson, John ; Butler, David ; Caputo, Silvio ; Caserio, Maria ; Coles, Richard ; Cooper, Rachel F. D. ; Farmani, Raziyeh ; Gaterell, Mark ; Hale, James ; Hales, Chantal ; Hewitt, C. Nicholas ; Jankovic, Lubo ; Jefferson, I. ; Leach, J. ; MacKenzie, A. Rob ; Memon, Fayyaz Ali ; Sadler, Jon P. ; Weingaertner, Carina ; Whyatt, J. Duncan ; Rogers, Christopher D. F.
The reliable predictions of liquid holdup and pressure drop are essential for pipeline design in oil and gas industry. In this study, the drift-flux approach is utilized to calculate liquid holdups. This approach has been widely used in formulation of the basic equations for multiphase flow ... more
Error bounds for nonlinear filtering are very important for performance evaluation and sensor management. This paper presents a comparative study of three error bounds for tracking filtering, when the detection probability is less than unity. One of these bounds is the random finite set (RF ... more
Current formulas for calculating scour depth below of a free over fall are mostly deterministic in nature and do not adequately consider the uncertainties of various scouring parameters. A reliability-based assessment of scour, taking into account uncertainties of parameters and coefficient ... more