My watch list
my.chemeurope.com  
Login  

Predictive modeling of U.S. health care spending in late life

That one-quarter of Medicare spending in the United States occurs in the last year of life is commonly interpreted as waste. But this interpretation presumes knowledge of who will die and when. Here we analyze how spending is distributed by predicted mortality, based on a machine-learning model of annual mortality risk built using Medicare claims. Death is highly unpredictable. Less than 5% of spending is accounted for by individuals with predicted mortality above 50%. The simple fact that we spend more on the sick—both on those who recover and those who die—accounts for 30 to 50% of the concentration of spending on the dead. Our results suggest that spending on the ex post dead does not necessarily mean that we spend on the ex ante "hopeless."

Authors:   Liran Einav; Amy Finkelstein; Sendhil Mullainathan; Ziad Obermeyer
Journal:   Science
Volume:   360
edition:   6396
Year:   2018
Pages:   1462
DOI:   10.1126/science.aar5045
Publication date:   29-Jun-2018
Facts, background information, dossiers
  • mortality
  • waste
  • concentration
More about Science International / AAAS
  • Publications

    Random number generators go public

    On 10 July, researchers in Chile will unveil an online public random number service. Later in July, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) will launch its Randomness Beacon as a permanent service, upgrading a pilot program that began in 2013. Brazil, too, is planning ... more

    When the cure kills—CBD limits biodiversity research

    The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) commits its 196 nation parties to conserve biological diversity, use its components sustainably, and share fairly and equitably the benefits from the utilization of genetic resources. The last of these objectives was further codified in the Conve ... more

    See-through solar cells could power offices

    Solar windows turn some of the light shining through into electricity. They've been on the market for years. But many of these windows absorb some visible light, leaving them with a reddish or brownish hue, a trait frowned on by architects. Now, new versions are on the way that absorb invis ... more

  • News

    It's Not an Illusion

    Researchers have developed a compound that can transform near-infrared light into broadband white-light, offering a cheap, efficient means to produce visible light. The emitted light is also exceedingly directional, a desirable quality for devices like microscopes that require high spatial ... more

Your browser is not current. Microsoft Internet Explorer 6.0 does not support some functions on Chemie.DE