CMAI Completes 2003 World Vinyls Analysis

07-Feb-2003

CMAI, Chemical Market Associates, Inc., recently completed its annual vinyls market study, the 2003 World Vinyls Analysis. This study provides detailed analysis and information on PVC, VCM and EDC that is essential for business managers to make informed decisions for the years ahead. Focusing on eleven years, 1997-2007, this market review contains information related to supply/demand, capacity, cash cost, price forecast, and production/consumption for the vinyls chain throughout the world. A companion study to the 2003 World Vinyls Analysis is the 2003 World Chlor-Alkali Analysis, which will be complete in the coming weeks. The global vinyls industry was revived in 2002 after enduring a challenging year in 2001. Worldwide demand for PVC grew at a healthy rate in 2002 averaging 4.8 percent versus 2001. The first three quarters of 2002 registered significant improvements in demand, pricing, and margins prior to cooling in the fourth quarter. The sustained surge in vinyls demand that characterized the first three quarters of 2002 began abruptly in January and resulted from the convergence of several factors that combined to keep the market in tight supply through August of 2002. It is important to underscore that the across the board improvements achieved by the industry during 2002 would have been much less dramatic had certain factors not occurred on a relatively simultaneous basis. World PVC demand is forecast to increase by 4.9 percent in 2003 with a long-term growth rate of 3.9 percent per year through 2007. According to the study, CMAI estimates 1.9 million metric tons of PVC capacity will need to be added on a global basis by 2007 in order to maintain operating rates below 95 percent. It is CMAI's opinion that large, integrated vinyls producers will expand capacity by 2007, with the additions occurring in the lower cost regions of the world by producers with captive feedstocks. New for 2003, clients to the 2003 World Vinyls Analysis have access to CMAI's on-line capacity database. Clients will have the ability to view, download and manipulate the most up-to-date capacity data into a spreadsheet format from CMAI's web site at www.cmaiglobal.com for the products covered within the Analysis. The following report types are available on-line: product capacity, capacity integration, top lists (by producer and consumer), and expansions/closures. Clients will also have on-line access to the study.

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