Export growth of German industry threatens to halve by 2035
Exports to the USA and China will decline in the long term according to the study - India and Brazil have considerable potential
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German industrial exports could grow at a much slower rate in the future than in the past. While they have risen by 2.1 percent per year over the past ten years, growth could fall to 1.3 percent per year by 2035, according to a recent Deloitte model. The decisive factor for the decline is that exports to the two largest markets - the USA and China - could fall in the long term. According to this forecast, exports to the United States will fall by -1.5% per year to 65 billion euros in 2035, while exports to China will fall by -1.7% to 41 billion euros. At the end of 2025, the volume for the two countries was 76 and 49 billion euros respectively.
The volatile trade policy in recent times has caused considerable problems for the export-oriented German industry. Last year, exports to the USA fell by 13% and those to China by 16% compared to 2024. China was thus overtaken by France as the second largest sales market. Exports there were just ahead of China in 2025 - despite a decline of three percent - at 50 billion euros. "It is to be expected that industrial exports to the Netherlands and the UK will also exceed exports to the People's Republic in a few years," says Oliver Bendig, Partner and Head of Industry Consulting at Deloitte. "As an industrialized nation, Germany needs a new business model."
The current modeling in the "Supply Chain Pulse Check" study series is based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (Purdue University) and analyzes future trade patterns between Germany and 71 countries in the mechanical engineering, electrical, automotive and chemical industries. Among other things, GDP growth, trends in the geopolitical alignment between Germany and the respective trading partner and the development of tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers up to and including March 2026 were taken into account. The export data from previous years was collected by the Federal Statistical Office. A comparable Deloitte model from 2024 assumed annual growth in industrial exports of around two percent.
India and Brazil with considerable potential
Sales to large countries in the global South, such as India and Brazil, also fell by two and three percent respectively in 2025. However, there is considerable potential here in the long term. According to the current projection, exports to India could grow by 3.9% and exports to Brazil by 4.1%. This would put sales to these two countries at 13 and 11 billion euros respectively in 2035. Australia could also gain in importance with an increase of 4.7% to nine billion euros. "The new free trade agreements are cause for hope," says Dr. Jürgen Sandau, partner and supply chain expert at Deloitte. "But hope alone is not enough. Companies must diversify their supply chains as well as their sales markets and Europe must continue to reduce its trade barriers in the single market."
Exports to major European markets such as the Netherlands (3%), the UK (4%) and Poland (6%) also increased last year. According to the current modeling, this trend will continue. Sales to Poland and Spain could grow by 2.9% and 2.3% to 56 and 38 billion euros in 2035. In total, the ten largest markets in Europe could have a volume of 417 billion euros in 2035 - almost twice as much as the largest markets in Asia and America, including China and the USA. In the long term, the potential in Europe could be even greater if trade barriers within the European Union are further reduced.
Note: This article has been translated using a computer system without human intervention. LUMITOS offers these automatic translations to present a wider range of current news. Since this article has been translated with automatic translation, it is possible that it contains errors in vocabulary, syntax or grammar. The original article in German can be found here.
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